Washington Post has this story up on exit polls.
Party - nearly 4 in 10 self-identif as Dems while only 3 in 10 as Repubs. In 2009 Repubs beat Dems 37-33 while 2012 Dems led 39-32.
Race a bit over 70% white, roughly equal to 2012. In 2009
the makeup was 78% white.
IDEOLOGY — about 1/5 are political liberals while a bit over 1/3 are conservatives. In 2009 it was 40-18% in favor of conservatives. Also there is about a 9% drop from 2009 in percentage of voters identifying as white evangelical Christians.
EDUCATION — Almost 2x as many college grads as non-grad, compared to a 54-46 split in BOTH 2009 and 2012.
In short, makeup of electorate far more like 2012 than in 2009.
Some evidence based on number and % of people voting at different points in the day that turnout will be heavier proportionally in Nova, where the shutdown had a huge impact, and down in SW, which at this point culturally tilts very Republican.
EVerything I am seeing points to at least a 7 point win by McAuliffe, which should be enough to carry Herring into AG. Northam will lead the ticket as LG, winning easily by double digits. And the margin should lead to Dems picking up a number of House of Delegate seats, particularly in NoVa.
Make of it what you will.